CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T14:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31363/1 Model Inputs: 2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=44.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=1106.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-06-08T04:59Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-06-10T14:35Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =34.6 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0 (kp)90=4 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-12T20:15Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-09T07:38Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-10T04:45Z Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-11T17:00Z OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-06-10T21:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240608_045900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 50.72 hour(s)
Difference: 2.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-06-08T13:53Z
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